UK and EU Look to 2025 for a Reset Amid Limited Trade-Offs
Early 2025 marks a pivotal moment for UK-EU relations as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer prepares to attend an informal summit with EU leaders. This invitation, the first of its kind since the tumultuous Brexit negotiations, reflects growing optimism for a reset under the Labour government.
The summit’s focus will be on defence and security cooperation, set against a backdrop of global instability, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and heightened tensions with the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House.
Shared Values in Uncertain Times
The shared threats to security and trade revenues have brought the UK and EU closer together, reminding both parties of their common values. While Brexit weakened the EU by losing a major economy and military power, it also diminished the UK’s global influence.
Labour has recognised the importance of Europe in addressing key domestic priorities, including the economy, defence, and migration. As Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations puts it, “Things which will make a success of this government are tied up with Europe.”
Defence and Security: The Low-Hanging Fruit
Defence and security cooperation is seen as the easiest area for progress. The UK already collaborates with EU nations through NATO on issues like sanctions against Russia, cyber-attack prevention, and energy infrastructure protection.
This win-win agreement does not require a legally binding pact, making it politically safe for Labour to pursue without reopening Brexit wounds.
Trade Barriers: A Tougher Challenge
While defence cooperation is straightforward, resetting economic relations with the EU is far more complex. Labour has pledged to “make Brexit work” and address the trade barriers that have hurt the UK economy. However, the EU remains sceptical of London’s willingness to make meaningful compromises.
EU diplomats have ruled out trade concessions tied to defence agreements. Instead, they suggest sectoral negotiations that may require the UK to align with specific EU regulations.
Migration and the Youth Mobility Scheme
Migration remains a contentious issue. The EU is pushing for a Youth Mobility Scheme, allowing 18-30-year-olds to work or study across borders. While Labour has ruled out a return to freedom of movement, it has left the door open for this scheme, which could benefit EU citizens more than UK nationals due to language barriers.
The Road Ahead
The goodwill in Brussels towards Labour’s “reset” is tempered by scepticism over the UK’s red lines, particularly on customs union membership, single market access, and freedom of movement.
Compromises on both sides will be essential for significant progress. Whether Labour can frame these compromises as victories for the British public will be key to the success of its ambitious reset agenda.
As negotiations unfold, the UK and EU must navigate a delicate balance between political optics and pragmatic cooperation, with 2025 shaping up to be a defining year for their relationship.