Turkey Backs Sweden's NATO Membership: A Shift in Geopolitical Dynamics

Turkey's recent decision to support Sweden's bid to join NATO marks a significant shift in Euro-Atlantic security dynamics. After months of blocking Sweden's membership application, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to forward Sweden's bid to the Turkish parliament and "ensure ratification." This decision has been hailed as a "historic step" by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and has garnered positive reactions from several NATO member states, including the United States and the United Kingdom. This article explores the implications of Turkey's support for Sweden's NATO membership and its potential impact on regional security and geopolitical alignments.

For months, Turkey had been a key holdout in Sweden's NATO membership bid, accusing Stockholm of harboring Kurdish militants and not taking sufficient action against groups like the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey considers a terrorist organization. As one of NATO's 31 members, Turkey holds veto power over any new country joining the alliance. However, recent diplomatic engagements, including meetings between Turkish and Swedish leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania, seem to have shifted Ankara's stance.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson expressed his satisfaction with the development, calling it "a good day for Sweden." In response, U.S. President Joe Biden welcomed President Erdogan's commitment to moving forward with the "swift ratification" of Sweden's membership bid, emphasizing the importance of cooperation in enhancing defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area.

While NATO officials, such as Jens Stoltenberg, have praised the agreement, they also cautioned that a specific timeline for Sweden's accession to NATO depends on the Turkish parliament's ratification process. Alongside Turkey, Hungary remains the only other NATO member yet to ratify Sweden's membership, but Hungarian officials have indicated that their approval is now "only a technical matter."

President Erdogan's support for Sweden's NATO bid was initially linked to the European Union's re-opening of frozen membership talks with Turkey. Although EU officials quickly dismissed the idea of tying these two separate issues together, NATO noted that Sweden would actively support efforts to "revitalize Turkey's EU accession process," including discussions on modernizing the EU-Turkey customs union and visa liberalization.

Turkey's EU accession process, which began back in 1987, has stalled in recent years due to concerns over Turkey's democratic backsliding and authoritarian drift under Erdogan. The recent shift in Turkey's approach to Sweden's NATO membership could potentially serve as a stepping stone for renewed dialogue between Ankara and Brussels.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Turkey has played a unique role as a NATO member with significant influence in Moscow. Ankara brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative last year, allowing Ukraine to export agricultural products from its ports amid the ongoing conflict. Turkey has been instrumental in maintaining the deal, even as Russia has repeatedly threatened to withdraw.

However, Turkey's actions have not always aligned with Russian interests. Ankara has provided armed drones to Ukraine, aggravating the Kremlin, and in a surprise move, allowed five former commanders of the Ukrainian garrison at Mariupol to return to Kyiv after a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Under a prior prisoner exchange agreement, Russia expected these commanders to remain in Turkey until the end of the war, making their release a contentious issue.

Sweden, along with its eastern neighbor Finland, initially declared its intention to join NATO in May 2022, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Finland officially joined NATO in April 2023. However, Sweden's path to membership faced obstacles, primarily from Turkey. To address Ankara's security concerns, Sweden has taken several steps, including amending its constitution, revising laws, expanding counter-terrorism efforts against the PKK, and resuming arms exports to Turkey.

These measures appear to have satisfied Turkey's primary demands, paving the way for Sweden to potentially become NATO's 32nd member. The enlargement of NATO to include Sweden would bolster the alliance's presence in the Nordic region, further enhancing collective defense and deterrence capabilities against potential threats, particularly from Russia.

The two-day NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, opened with Sweden's NATO bid and Ukraine's future membership aspirations high on the agenda. While all NATO members agree that Ukraine cannot join the alliance during the ongoing war, amidst concerns of a direct confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia, several Eastern European members have pushed for a fast-track membership process for their neighbor. In contrast, the U.S. and Germany have taken a more cautious approach.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his desire for a "clear signal" on Ukraine's NATO membership bid during the summit. Meanwhile, Russia has warned that Ukraine's NATO membership would pose a severe threat to its security, with Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating that such a move would have "negative consequences for the entire security architecture" in Europe.