Security Gaps and Timelines: Assessing the Conditions for Israeli Troop Withdrawal in the New Peace Proposal
President Donald Trump recently announced a 20 point peace proposal for the Gaza conflict, an ambitious framework that has been described as a significant, albeit very difficult, step toward ending the war and setting the stage for Gaza’s post conflict governance and reconstruction. The plan, which received the endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, lays out a detailed path for an immediate cessation of hostilities, a structured hostage release and prisoner exchange, and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. However, the proposal faces profound obstacles, primarily stemming from its preconditions and the deeply entrenched political realities of the region.
The core elements of the Trump plan include an immediate ceasefire upon acceptance by both sides, with Israel withdrawing forces to agreed upon lines. Crucially, it mandates the release of all remaining Israeli hostages within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting the deal, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences. For the longer term, the plan requires Hamas to decommission all its military capabilities and for Gaza to become a "deradicalized terror free zone." Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence would receive amnesty, while others would be granted safe passage out of Gaza.
Despite the initial breakthrough of Israeli support, the fundamental obstacles to the plan’s success are immense. The most immediate challenge is Hamas's acceptance of the terms, particularly the demand for its complete disarmament and the effective surrender of its political and military power. Hamas has previously rejected disarmament as a condition for a ceasefire, viewing it as giving up its only leverage and leaving the Palestinian people defenseless. The plan essentially requires the militant group to dismantle itself in exchange for aid and reconstruction, a trade off the group's leadership may not accept.
Furthermore, the post conflict governance structure is fraught with uncertainty. The plan calls for a temporary transitional governance by a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, overseen by an international "Board of Peace" chaired by President Trump and including figures like former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. This interim body would govern until a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. However, there is a lack of clear detail on how this committee will be formed, who will certify the PA's readiness to return, and, most critically, Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly stated that the PA will not govern Gaza, which directly contradicts the long-term vision laid out in the US proposal. The vagueness surrounding the Israeli troop withdrawal which is linked to demilitarization milestones—and the establishment of a temporary international stabilization force also present major logistical and political challenges.