Manufacturers of the COVID-19 vaccination are focusing on boosters.
Key Takeaways:
- COVID-19 vaccine makers are shifting gears and preparing for a lesser release after providing as many doses as they could over the last 18 months.
- Upstart Booster vaccinations are being developed by Novavax Inc. of the United States and CureVac NV of Germany in collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline.
- Adults who are still unvaccinated, according to Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, are unlikely to seek immunizations now, more than two years after the pandemic began.
After distributing as many doses as they could over the last 18 months, COVID-19 vaccine producers are altering gears and prepping for a smaller, more competitive booster shot market.
Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc, two of the largest COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers, said they estimate that most people who wished to be vaccinated against COVID-19 had already done so - more than 5 billion people worldwide.
ACCORDING TO THEM, most COVID-19 immunizations in the coming year will be booster doses or first inoculations for youngsters, which are currently awaiting regulatory approval around the world.
Even if global demand drops, Pfizer, which partners with Germany's BioNTech SE, and Moderna envision a major role for themselves in the vaccination business.
Upstart Novavax Inc. of the United States and CureVac NV of Germany, collaborating with GlaxoSmithKline, are developing booster vaccinations.
AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson, whose shots are less popular or effective, are projected to lose ground in this market.
"Even for vaccines considered to be the finest, like Pfizer and Moderna, it becomes a highly competitive game with businesses battling it out with pricing and market share," said Hartaj Singh, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.
It's unclear how many booster doses will be required. Only a slight percent of the population is recommended for second booster doses in various countries.
It's also uncertain whether vaccine manufacturers would market a revised shot this fall and every fall after that, as they do with flu vaccines to match circulating strains, and what effect that will have on dwindling demand.
According to Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, adults who are still unvaccinated are unlikely to seek vaccinations now, more than 2 years of the pandemic.
Demand will come from the "already immunized," according to Bourla.
People over 50 and persons with additional health risk factors or high-risk vocations, such as health-care professionals, might benefit from annual boosting, according to Moderna executives.
This demographic is projected to be roughly 1.7 billion people, or about 21% of the global population, according to Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel.
Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, which create messenger RNA vaccines that can be updated more quickly than competitors', have announced that they are working on vaccinations for the virus's Omicron version.
According to Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren, the United States and Western Europe, which have vaccinated over 600 million people, will remain major markets. Still, sales maybe a quarter of what they have been.
"The low-hanging fruit is that 20% to 25% of people are considered high risk for various reasons, and I believe that is the demographic that is most likely to contract it every year," he said.
That would be substantially fewer than the nearly 49% of adults in the United States and 62% of adults in Europe who have had at least one booster, 335 million people.
Analysts predict sales of about $17 billion for Pfizer/BioNTech and $10 billion for Moderna in 2023, which is shorter than half of the $34 billion and $23 billion expected this year. Sales are projected to decline much further after that.