How Migration Trends Are Shaping the Future of European Politics
Mohammed dreams of crossing into Europe to pursue a career in basketball, but he, along with tens of thousands of others, faces significant risks. Fishing nets often pull up the bodies of those who have perished in poorly constructed boats, a grim reminder of the perilous journey.
Wahid Dahech, known locally as the "remains finder," is tasked with identifying and reporting the bodies of migrants who die at sea. Recently, the body of a deceased baby was discovered by local children while swimming. Despite these dangers, many are willing to pay substantial amounts to board these treacherous vessels.
Italy has seen a dramatic increase in arrivals this year, with over 72,000 migrants making the perilous journey, more than double last year's figures. Most of these migrants are sub-Saharan Africans fleeing dire conditions on their home continent.
The influx is reshaping European politics. Italy's new right-wing Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, campaigned on a platform of halting migrant boats—a position similar to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s pledge to "stop the boats" crossing the English Channel. In Sicily, where many migrants land, newly elected mayor Enrico Trantino voices frustration at the local burden, describing it as unrealistic to expect the region to support all migrants adequately.
Meloni, once criticized for her far-right connections, has been embraced by European leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently traveled with Meloni to Tunisia, where the EU is dangling up to $2 billion in aid in exchange for Tunisian President Kais Saied’s cooperation to curb the migrant flow. Saied, however, has been accused of inciting racial animosity and alleging a conspiracy to replace local Arabs with black Africans.
The rise of anti-migrant sentiment isn't confined to the Mediterranean. In Germany, the far-right AfD party is gaining traction, now competing closely with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats in polls. The situation is exacerbated by the local impact of migration, with conservative politicians in Bavaria blaming migrants for strains on healthcare, education, and housing.
Germany, which welcomed over a million refugees during the Syrian crisis in 2015, is now exploring ways to address labor shortages by potentially fast-tracking asylum seekers into the workforce. This comes amid growing calls across Europe to prioritize local populations.
The political landscape in Europe is shifting as nations grapple with migration. The Dutch government recently collapsed over disagreements on migration policy, and Scandinavian countries like Denmark have enacted stringent measures, such as moving asylum seekers outside the EU while their claims are processed.
That sympathy for individuals has not turned right into a cumulative desire to open up Europe to those who want to come. Specifically the opposite.