Four Paths Justin Trudeau Can Take as His Leadership Faces Scrutiny

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finds himself at a crossroads following the unexpected resignation of Chrystia Freeland, his most senior cabinet member and former close ally. Freeland, the deputy prime minister and finance minister, stepped down with a public letter criticizing Trudeau's spending policies and outlining differing views on the "best path forward for Canada."

The resignation comes at a critical time, with the looming threat of tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, which economists warn could deal a severe blow to Canada’s economy. With rising doubts from within his own Liberal Party, Trudeau faces four distinct paths to navigate this political crisis.

Option 1: Resign Amid Growing Pressure

Trudeau’s leadership of the Liberal Party since 2013 and his nearly decade-long tenure as prime minister could come to an end if he heeds the calls to step down. Under the party’s constitution, Trudeau has the option to resign immediately, allowing an interim leader to guide the party until a new permanent leader is chosen. Alternatively, he could remain in office until the leadership transition is complete.

If Trudeau chooses this path, he would relinquish his prime ministerial powers to his successor. However, stepping down might be perceived as conceding defeat and could have significant repercussions for the Liberal Party’s future.

Option 2: Weather the Political Storm

Despite mounting pressure, Trudeau has shown no intention of resigning. Following Freeland’s departure, he convened an emergency caucus meeting, urging his party to reflect while reaffirming his commitment to his leadership.

In a recent holiday address, Trudeau acknowledged the challenges of politics but maintained that "in difficult times, it's not time to stop. It's time to be ambitious, audacious."

Trudeau’s approval ratings have plummeted, with his party losing several special elections in previously safe Liberal strongholds. A small but vocal faction of his caucus has also called for his resignation. However, only 13 of 153 Liberal MPs have openly demanded his exit, and most of them are not seeking re-election.

Polls suggest that if an election were held today, the Conservative Party would secure a decisive victory. Still, under Liberal Party rules, a leader’s position can only be formally challenged by members following an election loss, meaning Trudeau may hold on until the next federal election.

Option 3: Face a No-Confidence Vote

The opposition Conservative Party, riding high in polls with a double-digit lead, has been actively pushing for a no-confidence vote to trigger an election. A successful no-confidence motion would force the government to resign or dissolve parliament, leading to a federal election.

However, Trudeau’s minority government has so far survived these attempts, thanks to the support of the NDP and Bloc Québécois. With parliament adjourned for the holidays, the next confidence vote is unlikely until late January.

The situation, however, took a turn when NDP leader Jagmeet Singh called for Trudeau’s resignation, with the NDP signaling they might support a no-confidence motion in the new year. If this occurs, Trudeau’s leadership could face its most significant challenge yet.

Option 4: Prorogue Parliament to Buy Time

To avoid a no-confidence vote, Trudeau could prorogue parliament, effectively suspending its proceedings without dissolving it. This strategy has been used in Canadian politics before to weather crises.

Trudeau himself prorogued parliament in 2020 amid an ethics scandal involving a charity contract. Similarly, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper prorogued parliament in 2008 to avoid a coalition government threatening his leadership.

While prorogation could provide a temporary reprieve, it risks being seen as a political maneuver to cling to power and may erode public trust further.

The Path Ahead: A Leadership Defining Moment

Regardless of which path Trudeau chooses, Canada faces an election by October 2025 at the latest. Many political analysts predict an election sooner rather than later, with voters ultimately deciding Trudeau’s political fate.

As his leadership faces intense scrutiny, Trudeau must weigh his options carefully. Each decision will have profound implications not only for his political legacy but also for the future of the Liberal Party and Canada’s place on the global stage.