Despite public outrage, China's Xi maintains the COVID policy.
Key Takeaways:
- Rising public discontent and a fast deteriorating economic picture would generate anxiety and policy reassessment for many leaders.
- Reversing course would necessitate a jarring shift in messaging to a population that has been conditioned to fear the coronavirus.
For many leaders, rising public dissatisfaction and a rapidly deteriorating economic picture would cause concern and policy rethinking.
However, Chinese President Xi Jinping is doubling down on a trademark "dynamic zero" COVID-19 policy that has been increasingly tested by the more infectious Omicron version, who certainly would prefer calmer sailing in the run-up to a third term in office.
Analysts say Xi's high-profile reiteration of the strategy, which came last week during a visit to the southern island of Hainan and followed days of state-media support for it, shows a political necessity not to change course and appear weak in a year when he wants to appear strong.
Given the lack of herd immunity and an unstable healthcare system in China, which had kept COVID at bay until recently after fumbling the outbreak when it first arose in late 2019 in Wuhan city, it also points to the lack of appealing alternatives beyond tweaks and modifications.
China has made much of the dangers of COVID and how it has destroyed populations in other countries. A reversing course would necessitate an unpleasant reversal of messaging to a public conditioned to fear the coronavirus.
"Persisting in China's responses to shocks, rather than importing Western responses, appears to be his approach," said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Natixis' Asia Pacific chief economist.
"This includes policies like 'dynamic zero COVID' vs. the Western strategy of targeting herd immunity," she explained.
Xi's commitment to the program, despite massive public disapproval, underlines the stability of his position in the absence of internal resistance as he prepares to run for a record-breaking third term at the Communist Party's once-every-five-years plenum this September.
"Based on the number of people who spoke up and the intensity with which they expressed themselves, this has been the huge public exhibition of dissatisfaction since Xi took office in 2012," said Yang Chaohui, a political science instructor at Peking University.
"However, popular discontent is scattered and lacks the impetus to affect Xi," he said.