Covid: can Britain avoid a return to the European lockdown?

This raises concerns that the UK may follow suit. But there is every reason to believe that Britain will escape the worst of what the continent has seen. Indeed, the UK could be in the most vital position of all to contain Covid this winter.

To understand why this is so, you need to look at why cases are growing in Western Europe.

Unlike the UK - and the UK in particular - many parts of Europe have more extended significant restrictions. By the time the UK fully opens in mid-July, parts of Europe don't do so until the fall, and in many places, although they do, maintain stricter restrictions.

Part of it is about timing. The UK was previously hit by the more contagious Alpha and then Delta variants, meaning it could move forward in unblocking it before anything else.

But it's also a conscious choice, backed by leading government scientists Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Valance. In addition to the advantages of lifting restrictions that are harmful to health, the logic is that it is preferable to relapse the infection, called the plague, in the summer.

It is thought that better weather, i.e., more time outdoors, will moderate the increased spread of the virus and avoid a winter crisis if pressure on the health care system increases everywhere. Britain had seen the floods that swept across Europe and had managed not to be overwhelmed by them.

This is mainly due to the built-in immunity.

The combination of reasonable distribution of the vaccine, especially among the older, more susceptible groups who are most at risk of serious illness, and the innate immunity to infection mean there is likely to be a much smaller group of people at risk of contracting the virus. Researchers at the London School of Hygiene also Tropical Medicine tried to quantify this by looking at what would happen if everyone were suddenly exposed to the virus.